The annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, ended last week. And it failed to deal with the main theme it belatedly claimed to be this year’s focus: the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. This is the name given to what was, in earlier years, called the integrated circuit or micro chip revolution that spawned the exponential growth of automation, of robotics and the development of artificial intelligence.
What we did have was a comment by South Africa’s minister in the presidency, Jeff Radebe, that South Africa should lead this revolution in Africa. But he also admitted, almost as an aside, that this might result “in a loss of jobs”. Overall, the impression was that the future looked at least promising.
But this WEF meeting was, from all accounts, much more downbeat than previous gatherings that provided a glittering platform for movie and media celebrities to parade the hearts on their sleeves. Such froth was clearly seen as inappropriate at a time when even the most diehard market bulls concede that the economic crisis may be deepening. And, looming over it all is the “Fourth Revolution”. Not that any real attempt was made to properly analyse it, let alone provide any possible ansers.
And the comments by Radebe were fully in line with the overall view, well expressed by Klaus Schwab, the billionaire founder and CEO of what is, in effect, the richest rich man’s club on earth. Before the latest WEF meeting began, Schwab wrote that this revolution “could yield greater inequality, particularly in its potential to disrupt labor markets. As automation substitutes for labor across the entire economy, the net displacement of workers by machines might exacerbate the gap between returns to capital and returns to labor.”
He was right. But he then went on to claim: “On the other hand, it is also possible that the displacement of workers by technology will, in aggregate, result in a net increase in safe and rewarding jobs.” He failed to add: “But only for the very few.”
This is because Schwab and his ilk have a decidedly blinkered view. It is summed up by his comment: “In the future, technological innovation will also lead to a supply-side miracle, with long-term gains in efficiency and productivity.”
In this he is correct in terms of long-term gains in efficiency and productivity. However, within our present system, this has already led not to any miracle, but to gluts and to the obscene situation of over capacity and over production in a world where poverty is still the lot millions of men, women and children. It is a world where societies are starting to disintegrate under the economic and social pressures resulting from a political and economic system that is clearly incapable of dealing with the demands of the 21st Century.
But it is a system to which Schwab and his 999 fellow members of the WEF, along with other beneficiaries, are wed. So instead of dealing openly and honestly with the real consequences of this “Fourth Revolution” and proposing answers that would benefit humanity as a whole, the WEF avoided the underlying cause and concentrated instead on symptoms such as the pollution of the seas caused by plastic waste.
As a result, as this 46th annual talk shop ended, it brought to mind the aphorism: “There are none so blind as those who will not see.” And, perhaps more appropriately: “The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know.”
Cape Town, South Africa-based journalist commentator and author specialising in political and economic analysis and labour matters. 
Terry Bell Writes 
Drs Sears Appalswamy
January 23, 2016
Hi Terry, Please forward my greetings to Horst Kleinschmidt
Terry Bell
January 23, 2016
Only with pleasure.
DP from Durbs
January 24, 2016
Without underestimating the problem of the ‘4th revolution’, isn’t the current global quagmire more to do with mountains of private debt and a related lack of demand?
William White, former chief economist for the Bank of International Settlements and current OECD review committee chairman, gave a speech at Davos that seems to me to get to the heart of the problem, or at least to offer a potential way out of it. As a solution, White called for across the board debt write-offs and a massive global government spending infrastructure blitz. This harks back to the kind of old-school Keynesianism that youst to actually make capitalism appear to be a potentially viable system.
When you look at SA’s massive development challenges and potential for industrialization, some form of ‘Peoples Quantative Easing’ sounds like a viable and very appealing option. Think of the work that needs to be done in health, education, sanitation, housing, energy etc. It’s enough to keep us all busy for decades to come….
P.S. Over the years you have become my favourite SA commentator/analyst, Mr. Bell. The amount I’ve learnt from you is staggering. Thanks.
P.P.S. Maybe the SA Reserve Bank needs to add full employment to its mandate, sitting alongside inflation targeting as an equal overseer of policy.
DP from Durbs
January 24, 2016
God almighty, I must’ve gotten a bit too much sun today…. just realized that I wrote ‘youst’ instead of ‘used’ in the above comment. I should just pretend that it’s some kind of catchy slang.
Terry Bell
January 24, 2016
Exactly the sort of error I make when hurriedly writing or responding and then pressing “send” before giving the text a proper once over. Understood exactly what you meant.